Discussion - alternative history in superscenario

[trurle]

In this thread i will try to snapshot development of WWII in SOE2 game under mostly computer control. The only human is Thai, which (may be) will have negligible impact on the outcome of the war.
Reports will be monthly (approximately)

[trurle]

22 July, 1941
Situation in Mediterranean is rather bad for British. Malta was captured by Italians. Turkish army broke through to the center of Cyprus. Lebanon assault on Vichy`s France have stalled. Alexandria is captured by German-Italian combined forces. And one large British fleet is largely annihilated. Such result can be attributed to active position of Italy in game and lack of any British reinforcements from home islands
.

Soviet South Baltic. More or less according to history. Both sides engage in bloody fighting, but Soviets are steadily retreating.

Central Soviet front. A big surprise! Instead of being inching their way through vast Belorussian forests、Germans has already advanced beyond Smolensk. Again, lack of re-deployment of forces to blame. Germans initially had here strongest group, and therefore advanced to their furthest.

But German lack of strategic re-deployment has come to cost. Their defenses in Normandy are crumbling, despite help coming from Spain and southern France. British has got upper hand in sea, and massing their forces in north France. Units from sporadic counter-attacks of Germans to Cornwall are immediately being cornered and exterminated by vast British army.

In Finland, the devotion of both sides to war (contrary to history) have resulted in expected result. Carnage. Finns army is mostly slaughtered. Soviet army has suffered greatly as well, and melt away under increasing airstrikes from the German forces on the south side of Baltic.

But the weirdest think happens in Pacific. Japanese, handicapped by their "Infantry division 40A" (to be exact, the absence of horses to equip them) did not launch any significant amphibious assault anywhere. As i understand game logic, for unit to embark to ships, generally required to have full mobility (horses and trucks). Because this is impossible (all horses are used up), the Japanese divisions are cool down in home ports. Near Vladivostok, only Japanese fleet is active, but no ground reinforcements are coming.

Thanks to buggy Japanese immobility, US fleets and Australian land units have already captured the majority of outlying Japanese Pacific islands. Even the powerful hub of Truk base has fallen. Base on Minamitorishima living its last days under sustained Australian assault, and last remains of the active Japanese fleet in Pacific are being massacred, ounumbered 3:1, near Chichijima. Few detachments of US fleet has already started bombardment on Honshu island near Tsukuba.

In French Indochina (Vietnam) situation is a complete disaster for Vichy`s French. Deprived of Japanese allies (thanks to game bug) and possibility of building new units (thanks to another bug) French people has gathered for the final, pitched and hopeless battle. The "Fall of Saigon" to British and Dutch is ongoing.

In the Asia-Pacific region, only human-controlled Thailand fares relatively well.
Phuket is firmly holding against sustained Anglo-Dutch attack, while British forces in Burma are being systematically eradicated. The plans are to eventually eliminate Burma British troops and with relatively secure north flank to concentrate on the re-conquest of French Indochina and ultimately Singapore.

Report of carnage numbers following!

[trurle]

Casualties of "Big 6" (and Thailand)

Axis forces:
Germany - 0.75mln KIA, 0.81mln WIA, 12.46mln remains (in army and conscription pool)
Italy - 0.07mln KIA, 0.06mln WIA, 7.78mln remains
Japan - 0.24mln. KIA, 0.28mln WIA, 12.03mln remains
Thailand - 0.005mln KIA, 0.007 mln WIA, 2.7mln. remains

Allied forces:
USA - 0.04mln KIA, 0.001mln WIA, 21.06mln remains
Soviet Union (USSR) -1.25mln KIA, 1.33mln WIA, 31.85mln remains
British Empire -0.43mln KIA, 0.49mln WIA, 12.44 mln. remains

Game algorithm return half of the wounded to active duty eventually, so total life loss for army is:
Axis: 1.64mln of 34.97mln
Allies: 2.60mln of 65.35mln

If carnage will continue at the same rate,
the Axis forces will cease to exist by May, 1943.
Allied forces will suffer by that time 84% losses.

Also, list of the countries capable to fully mobilize (conscript) its army in 1st month:
Axis: Denmark, Sweden
Allies: Australia, Canada, Great Britain, New Zealand, USA

Stock shortages:
Japan and Sweden has a critical shortage of horses
Australia, Germany, India, Norway , South Africa has a critical shortage of cars.

Countries with over-sized army:
China, Hungary, Slovakia, Switzerland.
May be units limit must include population as well as industrial power? For China, units number limit is simply incorrect - and by largest number among all states.

[Igor Kulakov]

Highly recommend for hosting images use the format jpg or well compressed png and specialized services (fotki.yandex.ru and others)

[trurle]

2 months passed. Breakthrough of German army was stopped 100km west of Moscow, of attack force nobody survives. Remnants of German army regroups at Vitebsk-Nevel line, 800 km to west.

In Southern Russia and Ukraine the stalemate ensues. Every unit is tied down to cities under increasingly vicious airstrikes. Only reinforcements can change situation, but no reinforcements are expected.

In Normandy the British invasion was contained by combined Spanish-Italian forces.

But this is barely good news..because USA is finishing siege of Canary islands, invading the North Africa Atlantic coast, and forward groups already bombarding Gibraltar.

In Pacific Ocean the Japan is in general retreat. Destruction of main USA fleets by Tokyo coastal defenses has allowed re-capture of Chichi-Jima and (ongoing) assault of Iwojima, but everything else is grim. Southern Taiwan is lost, and transport armada of USA is ready to invade Hokkaido.

Only succesful nation among Axis is the human-controlled Thailand. The Burmese British group is cut off from the sea, advance in depth of continent ongoing.

Also adding Russian language version of the text:
Прошло 2 месяца. Прорыв немецких войск был остановлен 100км от Москвы, уцелевших "арийцев" не было. Остатки немецких войск Восточного фронта пытаютя перегруппироваться на линии Невель-Витебск.
Южнее, у СССР и Германии одинаково тяжелая ситуация. Правит авиация! Мобильных наземных частей нет, все пытаются отсидеться в городах, но тщетно..все ждут подкреплений, которых не будет.
В Нормандии Испано-Итальянские части вместе с ошметками Германских войск сдержали натиск из Англии.
Но не стоило испанцам лезть в Нормандию..осада Канарских островов почти завершена, атлантическое побережье Африки - сцена хаотических боев, Американцы штурмуют Гибралтар!
В Тихом Океане аналогично. Основной флот США разбился о береговую оборону Токио, но основная масса транспортов США готова к высадке на Хоккайдо.
Только в Бурме Тайцы наступают..уже началась битва за Банладеш! Остатки Британских войск загнаны вглубь материка.

[trurle]

Casualties of "Big 6" (and Thailand)
(only this month)
- reduction of KIA this month
+ increase of KIA this month
0 no significant change
Axis forces:
Germany - 0.60mln KIA , 0.13mln WIA (-)
Italy - 0.20mln KIA, 0.21mln WIA (++)
Japan - 0.24mln. KIA, 0.08mln WIA (0)
Thailand - 0.008mln KIA, 0.010 mln WIA (+)

Allied forces:
USA - 0.18mln KIA, 0.23mln WIA, (++)
Soviet Union (USSR) -0.59mln KIA, -0.23 mln WIA (--)
British Empire -0.49mln KIA, 0.21mln WIA, (0)

Monthly losses:
Axis: 1.64mln;1.26mln of 34.97mln
Allies: 2.60mln;1.4mln of 65.35mln

In average, carnage is slowing down because the main forces of USSR and Germany has already mutually annihilated. But USA have only recently started to engage in significant battles.
This month prognosis: defeat of Axis in July, 1943 with 74% Allied losses.

[trurle]

22th September, 1941.
The Soviet have started a major offense on North! Minsk is back to Soviet Union. But on South, with the help of Italian reinforcements, Axis forces has captured Kiev.
All in all, German forces are crumbling under Soviet relentless pressure. The allied reinforcements delay failure, but can not prevent it.

In Mediterranean, situation also turns dire for Axis after USA fleets has passed Gibraltar. The Canary islands Spanish garrisons live their last weeks, and West Africa coast fighting has concentrated on single resistance center of Spanish and Vichy French. In Eastern Mediterranean, British also recover gradually. The Vichy French Lebanon is besieged, and threat to Cyprus is lifted. Egypt fighting also going well for British.

Only in Asia, allied progress is faulting. Heavy fighting continue at Chichi-jima, while Iwojima has fallen to Australia. But Japanese garrison of Taiwan has managed to repulse the ill-prepared USA attack. Long-term future remains dire for Japan though, because of increasing build-up of USA aviation on Kuril islands and in Philippines. The Japanese cannot contest air superiority because game algorithm do not allow them creation of the new air units (see discussion on Russian branch of forum)

The Japanese advance in Siberia has stalled, and line of front has not changed for the last month.

Finally, the puny Thai has won the defensive battle of Phuket and have stormed Andaman Islands. This was their 1st serious test of strength..against 3 well-equipped and trained British divisions, without any air cover. For a moment, 2 Thai division are thoroughly beaten at landing, while British forces were reduced to half. Likely, Port Blair will fall to Thai within 5 days, but unexpectedly heavy losses of Thai will delay their advance to Singapore.

[trurle]

Casualties of "Big 6" (and Thailand)
(only this month)
- reduction of KIA this month
+ increase of KIA this month
0 no significant change
Axis forces:
Germany - 0.58mln KIA , -0.13mln WIA (0)
Italy - 0.23mln KIA, 0.07mln WIA (0)
Japan - 0.25mln. KIA, -0.01mln WIA (0)
Thailand - 0.020mln KIA, 0.025 mln WIA (++)

Allied forces:
USA - 0.26mln KIA, 0.79mln WIA, (++)
Soviet Union (USSR) -0.58mln KIA, -0.73 mln WIA (0)
British Empire -0.49mln KIA, 0.21mln WIA, (0)

Monthly losses:
Axis: 1.64mln;1.26mln;1.01mln of 34.97mln
Allies: 2.60mln;1.4mln;1.16mln of 65.35mln

The trend showed in the last month has stabilized. German-Soviet Union fighting has turned in war of attrition, and we see ever increasing involvement of the USA in the Asia and Europe.
This month prognosis: defeat of Axis in December, 1943 with 71% Allied losses.

[trurle]

17th October, 1941. Nothing interesting happens, therefore i close the post.
The "frontlines" on all computer-controlled fronts has stalled. Only significant activity is in British Malaysia, there human-controlled Thai army has inflicted severe defeat on British forces. The fall of Singapore is now inevitable.
The proofs of stagnation are below:

[trurle]

I also post some statistic screens on 17th October, 1941: